Market Musings from MDM

Market Musings from MDM

December 2009

We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year

A mixed month in November

November was a very stock-specific month

Apart from Inmarsat, a mobile telecoms company, at no 9 the top 11 FTSE100 shares over the month were commodity-related, with gains of between 13% and 30%. Meanwhile, many financials had a poor month, led by a fall of nearly 21% by RBS. If you strip out THE 2% net contribution these mining stocks and RBS made to the FTSE100 it only nudges ahead less than one percent over the month

Investors in Japan were rewarded by a strong performance from the Yen, only to have the currency gains more than wiped out by a nearly 7% fall in the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225), leaving the strongest winner being the US, with both market and currency gains for the month. The prize for top volatility for the month went to undated gilts!

So what can we deduce from this?

Firstly, that the bulls are not having it all their own way.

Secondly, that there is a lot of indecision - high gilt volatility being a big clue; daily price moves of +/- 8% are symptomatic of this

Thirdly, commodities are gaining momentum.

With such a high level of nervousness this is probably not a good time to be making "spur of the moment" investment decisions; it is, however, a good time to review any recent gains and carefully consider any income or capital requirements you may have over the coming months - not forgetting, however, to be mindful of the current volatility and to try not to lose out badly on any switches undertaken. As suggested last month, we would expect to see some increase in volatility in the short term but this looks like continuing to be a good time to accumulate equities for the longer term.

Model Portfolios

Along with markets, most fund returns were positive but fairly flat, although overseas funds, generally, were up around 1.5% to 4%. Looking forward, we heard an interesting comment from Graham French of M&G, one of the portfolios' fund managers, "If China makes it, the price will fall; if Chine needs it, the price will rise." This probably sums up the coming decade in nice, simple terms and is worth taking on board.

By the time you read this, we will have had the Pre-Budget Report, which is likely to include a variety of tax increases in one way or another. As mentioned last month, one of the things we are doing to help clients has been to explore new types of tax-efficient wrappers, to help mitigate this

Investment houses' market views

On a 12 month +/-5% consensus view, apart from US smaller companies and Japanese equities - where they are neutral - they are positive on all equities. They are positive on UK corporate bonds but negative on gilts and neutral on international bonds. They are also neutral on all property and currencies.

The above is not intended to imply any advice.

MDM Associates Ltd, MDM House, High Street,
Ripley, Woking, Surrey, GU23 6AN.
(All data: source: Sharescope: to 30/11/09)

How Capital Gains Tax (CGT) reforms have changed the face of Onshore Investment.

The Finance Act 2008 removed “Taper Relief” and its predecessor “Indexation” from the Capital Gains vocabulary. It also removed the prospect of Higher Rate Tax and set as standard a rate of 18% tax for gains in excess of the Capital Gains Allowance (currently £10,100 per annum).

There was much lobbying in Parliament by the insurance companies because, at a stroke, the government had virtually confined Onshore investment bonds to history. This, because such bonds are automatically subject to Basic Rate Tax on any gains within the bond, whereas Unit Trusts and OEICs only pay 18% tax on gains in excess of the annual allowance of £10,100, and then only if the encashment were to give rise to such a gain.

For Example: £200,000 invested in a Unit Trust grows in one year by 10% and is worth £220,000. £110,000 is suddenly needed and withdrawn from the Unit Trust. A gain of £10, 000 only would be registered and, because this is within the annual allowance of £10,100, the whole withdrawal would be free of tax

Such changes in legislation are, of course, not exempt from re-adjustment in the future, particularly by a new government coming to power, but I feel fundamental changes would be unlikely. A new government might, particularly given our current level of national debt, be more inclined to increase all levels of tax together, thereby maintaining the imbalance between bonds and unit trusts.

So we are left with a regime that disadvantages Onshore bonds in favour of Unit Trusts and OEICs.

Our Capital Gains Allowance is probably the most underused of our personal tax allowances and I believe it is an area worthy of “in depth” discussion with your financial adviser. Furthermore, any client who has had their money in an Onshore bond for five years or more should look upon such a discussion with some urgency.

Richard Perkins Dip PFS

Ten Top Tips for Retirement

My number one tip is live for today with an eye on tomorrow. Not as difficult as it sounds. Have your holidays, enjoy your family but make sure you budget along the way, keeping some money aside for the future. If you do a proper budget you’ll be surprised at how much money ‘slips through your fingers’ and it’s this money that will make all the difference in making savings for the future.

Everything you save has the potential to be for retirement – don’t just think of pensions as being your only route to income in retirement.

Don’t leave things to chance – you need to plan. This is different from your budget and is really the goals in life you want to aim for. Put it into a financial plan and you’ll be surprised what you can achieve.

Review your finances regularly. What may seem like a good plan or investment a few years ago may no longer be meeting targets.

Really know and understand what you are doing and don’t use ignorance as an excuse for putting your head in the sand. Understand what retirement planning is all about and interact with your adviser properly.

Your finances are your responsibility – whilst your employer may operate a pension scheme or some other type of savings arrangement, this does not mean that you don’t also have to make some allowance for the future.

It’s never too late or too early to start planning.

The best plans can still fail – you can only do what you are capable of – if need be take a break from future planning and look after the now.

Find an adviser you can trust, work & stick with them.

Generally speaking you get what you pay for – don’t always be led by costs.

Market Musings August 2009

Steady progress through the mist

Another good month!

We have had a few of these this year and it was nice to see more positive movement across the board. With the general exceptions of gilts and currencies, most investments should have made money during the month, with Western markets delivering around 8-9% and the Hang Seng leading the way with nearly 12% return.

The first week or so of the month saw a continuation of the previous month's downward drift for equities and Sterling, while gilts continued their steady climb - only to suddenly turn the opposite way and the surge in stock-markets was quite pronounced for the rest of the month; most markets rising by around 12-14% over this period, once again led by the Hang Seng, which rose by nearly 20%. Putting this into perspective, this represents around a couple of years' worth of typical returns.

This is important to note, as it has been less risky to be invested than not, and the FTSE is already up by over 30% since its March low - that's three or four years' worth of fair returns. Also, the FTSE is back up to where it was 10 months ago - so, to paraphrase the situation, it has been 10 months since investors lost money on the stock market

Model Portfolios

For quite some time now we have been running some core model portfolios - just three basic models: lower, medium and higher risk. These have been assembled along "risk allocation" lines, rather than the more common "asset allocation" lines - which means that they comprise a series of funds, each with a different risk/reward profile - on a look-through basis you will often find that the end result is similar to a portfolio derived from asset allocation construction methods but the various fund managers do the switching between asset types internally, and more cost and tax-efficiently. The intention being that this saves you from having to make ongoing "complex" investment decisions; for example, instead of having to decide whether to switch out of Japanese smaller company equities, managed by fund manager X, into a European Corporate Bond fund - or was it an American Technology fund, or….? it makes switching decisions far easier for you.

In other words, running most conventional "asset allocated" portfolios has involved a continuous series of "complex" decisions. Using our "risk allocated" models, however, simply requires you to decide if you want more or less risk, so you can then adjust the percentages held in each fund accordingly. To paraphrase Clint Eastwood, "Do you feel lucky, or not?"

We have now extended and updated these models so as to offer five risk profiles - from very cautious to very aggressive - using a broader range of funds, and also with more funds used in larger portfolios than smaller ones - more on this next month.

Investment houses' market views

On a 12 month +/-5% view they have turned negative on Europe but positive on US smaller companies and remain broadly positive on Pacific (excluding Japan), Emerging Market and BRIC equities. They remain neutral on all other equities.

Their outlook on property remains negative in the UK and neutral for global property securities. They have turned negative on Gilts but remain positive on UK corporate bonds and are neutral on currencies, with a slight bias towards the US$ and Euro over Japanese Yen.

The above is not intended to imply any advice.

MDM Associates Ltd, MDM House, High Street,
Ripley, Woking, Surrey, GU23 6AN.
(All data: source: Sharescope: to 31/7/09)

Market Musings for June 2009

Straight ahead?

Returns for May

Yet another positive month

May saw a strong showing in the Far East, useful returns in the West and continued weakness in gilts and currencies.

The graph shows the FTSE100 over the past three months. You can break it down into sections. First, the March rally, which started on 3rd; after a late month setback it went on to peak on April 2nd, then slipped sideways before a late month surge took it to a peak on May 8th. Since then it has broadly traded sideways again. The dashed lines show the current trend's "confidence limits" and give suggested upper and lower boundaries for the index. Nothing is set in stone but this does suggest that if the current trend continues the FTSE should head more strongly upwards until it hits the top limit again. Trends, however, are only trends until they are broken!

Probably the most significant difference lately is that investors' risk appetite has been returning.

Although it doesn't mean that investments will go up regardless it does mean that, whereas while any bad news might have caused a major fall and any(?) good news would have been ignored last year, now the slightest whiff of good news can send the market soaring and surprising amounts of bad news are being ignored.

In reality, we still have a very long way to go before we get back to the world we knew just a few years ago. We have to somehow repay another World War's worth of debt which has been injected into the system to prevent total collapse - and this will take time and will probably generate inflation at levels not seen for decades, not to mention hefty tax bills (the highest UK marginal tax rate is already set to be over 70% once budget proposals are implemented).

Investors might like to try to defend against future tax hikes by re-considering qualifying regular savings plans, where the proceeds are tax-free to the investor. If doing so a sensible bet could be to invest in property funds, as these are likely to recover after an initial dip - which is just what you want for regular savings.

Investment houses' views

On average fund houses are neutral on everything except Pacific (excluding Japan) equities and UK Corporate bonds, where they are positive, and on all property, where they are negative.

As ever, there are variations - there are two fund management houses which are positive across the board on all equities, one which is positive on all currencies and one which is negative on all currencies - apart from that they are all either neutral or mixed, with the exceptions mentioned.

Looking behind this it means they are now less positive on UK and emerging market shares, but less negative on Japanese and US shares.

Still bumpy but it's nice to see the bears not getting it all their own way, still.

The above is not intended to imply any advice.

MDM Associates Ltd, MDM House, High Street,
Ripley, Woking, Surrey, GU23 6AN.
(All data: source: Sharescope: to 29/5/09)

Market Musings

We're flying now

Returns for April

Another positive month

March's rally developed and blossomed in April, extending already healthy gains into a stronger rally than we saw in 2003 or 1995, when recovering from those years' respective market lows.

It doesn't get much better, really, with the FTSE 100 up over 20% from the early March low and the technology index up nearly 30% matched by the industrial transportation index. Now this is interesting, as you may recall from our March Musings that these sectors tend to lead when economies come out of recession. Perhaps, just perhaps, we may not get the hefty fall which usually follows a bear market rally.

If this really is the start of a genuine rally, but several indicators suggest a double digit fall in percentage terms is just around the corner.

This makes it very difficult to read the markets at the moment and perhaps only the brave will stay on board all the way through - of those who try to trade the markets, that is, others will find that this will continue to be a good time to accumulate real assets - and that includes property, as well as equities - on a three to five year view, although property is likely to take longer to return to favour.

Meanwhile although most investment mana-gers have been saying that we can expect a bear market rally, followed by a summer setback before the real bull market starts, some well-respected managers have said, tentatively, that markets could drift higher across the summer months, with no real setback worth speaking about.

Another view which is just emerging, is that, rather than a general setback, there is a likelihood that there will simply be a sector rotation - by that what they mean is that while defensive stocks like utilities and pharmaceuticals did well last year (well, held their own, rather than falling) but have slipped back while cyclicals (stocks which boom in a bull market and plummet in a crash) have blossomed of late, this is likely to reverse, and the defensive stocks may well pick up again, while the cyclicals fall back.

Time will tell but, once again, it's nice to see the bears not getting it all their own way.

Short term we could well see a setback before further significant progress is made.

So, what do the investment houses think?

Most fund houses have now moved back to being fairly neutral on most assets. They are now only positive on UK and US larger company shares, Emerging market shares and UK corporate bonds - although they are neutral to positive on the Yen as well.

They are negative on Japanese equities and on UK and overseas property - the rest they are neutral on.

Once again, this masks significant variations; three are pretty well entirely positive on equities, while one is almost completely negative across the board on them. There are also three investment houses which are positive across the board on fixed interest - and one which is entirely negative on all fixed interest.

Interestingly enough, none of those favouring equities across the board favour fixed interest and vice versa those favouring fixed interest.

The markets will continue to be bumpy but at least funds are finding it easier to deal.

The above is not intended to imply any advice.

MDM Associates Ltd, MDM House, High Street,

Ripley, Woking, Surrey, GU23 6AN.

(All data: source: Sharescope: to 30/4/09)

Market Musings

We are not there yet, but....

Returns for March

A positive month!

March saw a broadly based rally from the end of the first week- albeit almost certainly a bear market rally (ie one which will falter). Nonetheless, it was quite cheering to see some upticks for a change. Hidden among other positive gems was the longest contin-uous rally in the US S&P index since 1938! Euphoria should, however, be contained, as the FTSE relinquished most of its gains as the month drew to an end, before recovering them again on the last day of the month.

What about the longer term?

The short term fluctuations have been pretty horrific but we are always told that equities are for the long term. If this is so, what is the longer term prognosis from here?

There are historical relationships between various factors; one is the price:earnings ratio (PER) of share prices and the average annual real returns over the following decade.

Y=-0.8865x + 20.377

..which means that the higher the price of shares compared with that share's earnings the lower the return going forward; con-versely, the lower the PER the higher the returns will be. The PER for the UK market has recently been hovering around a PER for the UK market of 8; this correlates to an average real return over the following ten years of 13% per year (see graph on left); ie more than 10% a year over and above inflation for the next ten years, which we have not seen since 1980 - source : Cazenove January 2009.

Another study (SocGen:June 2008) has shown that over eighty percent of the return from a particular share over five years is driven by dividends, and earnings growth, while nearly two thirds of its performance over one year is driven by other factors, such as market sentiment, driving a change in its valuation.

These both imply that buying shares of companies with good earnings growth on the current low PERs should reap good rewards.

So, what do the investment houses think?

On a 12 month +/-5% view the consensus lately has been fairly neutral on most assets, with few changes over the preceding months. Now many investment houses have changed their views, giving a positive consensus on UK equities. They are also positive on US, Pacific excluding Japan and Emerging market equi-ties, although not on UK or US smaller companies, and are also negative on European and Japanese equities. They are still negative on all property and fairly neutral on curren-cies. They remain positive on corporate bonds but neutral on gilts and international bonds.

As ever, this masks significant variations; some are entirely positive on equities, while some others are either negative or neutral across the board on them. What is interest-ing, though, is that there is now significant variation on currencies and fixed interest in-vestments - with some investment houses entirely positive or negative across the board on both; this may well reflect their specific holdings - especially in fixed interest, where dealing is very difficult.

As stated last month, we are in for a bumpy year, but it is when the outlook appears darkest that the best investment opportunities are usually to be found. Provided you have a few years' investment horizon ….

The above is not intended to imply any advice.
MDM Associates Ltd, MDM House, High Street,
Ripley, Woking, Surrey, GU23 6AN.
(All data: source: Sharescope: to 31/3/09)